Procurement Velocity Index (PVI)
PVI measures the rate of change in defense contract awards relative to a 12-week rolling baseline. A PVI of 1.0 means normal procurement pace. Higher values indicate acceleration — governments buying faster than usual, which historically correlates with force buildup, equipment replacement, or mobilization preparation.
How to Read
What to Do
When PVI spikes
Check the Intel Checker for correlated news. Look for sole-source contracts (urgency indicator). Cross-reference with flight activity near that country.
Sustained WATCH
Multiple weeks at 2.0+ suggests systematic buildup, not a one-off order. Check arms trade flows for confirmation. Review AI briefings for pattern analysis.
Cross-layer correlation
The strongest signal is when PVI, flight activity, and trade flows all spike for the same region/company simultaneously. This is flagged as MOBILIZATION_PATTERN in briefings.